Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Things to do with $5 in EV

This post is a detailed list of the amount of bets that can be made in a casino that result in just -$5.00 in expectation in the long run (If you had 100 such sessions, you would probably lose about $500). The point of this post is to show which games and bets are ridiculously bad value and which ones are reasonable in moderation. With the addition of comps and other rewards given by the casino, some of these bets might be pretty close to break even and are well worth it for the entertainment value (assuming you enjoy playing these games) as long as they are controlled and unstressed.

The reason casinos make as much as they do is because people (re: like me at various times in '06 and '07) don't control themselves, get overstressed, chase losses, bet the hard ways etc.

  • Make 70 $5 bets ($350 total) on the pass/come line in Craps (the "odds" bets are break even).
In practice, by taking a pass line and a max of 2 come points, this takes about an hour (each 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 counts as one bet).

  • Make $45 worth of bets on the Hard 4/10 or $55 worth on the Hard 6/8 in Craps.
This shows how terrible hard ways bets are.

  • Make ~$600 in Blackjack bets.
This obviously varies based on the rules at the casino and if you can count cards or not.

  • Make $95 in bets at an American Roulette table.
American Roulette has a 0 and 00 where European Roulette only has 0 and also you only lose 50% of 1:1 bets when it hits 0. Contrast this with $370 in European Roulette bets.

  • Make $470 in bets on the Banker or $403 in bets on the Player in Baccarat.
Additionally you could make $217 in total bets on each. Betting on a tie is terrible value.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Rob's '09 Goals and Resolutions

1. Make over $60,000 playing poker.

2. Have a $10,000+ cash in a poker tournament.

3. Take a round break at least once every three hours in cash games for introspection and reevaluation and decide whether or not to continue playing.

4. Spend no more than $10 a week in EV at table games.

5. Never sit at a limit above my bankroll unless I am staked or have the proper amount of surplus bankroll to take a shot.

6. Exercise (Tennis, Ultimate, Golf, Gym, etc.) at least once a week for at least an hour.

7. Do my morning routine (15's, short run, breakfast) at least 5 times a week.

Rob's '08 Poker Year in Review

First off, 2007 was a bad year for me from a poker and gambling standpoint (I'm glad I was still working a "real job" at this time). I spent most of the year stuck after a bad decision to play in the big $100/$200 limit game. When I had finally gotten back to even for the year, I went to the WSOP and had no cashes and so was stuck again. I did manage to end the year up a few thousand at poker, but lost quite a bit more than that at table games like Blackjack and Craps.

So I started 2008 with a lot of doubt as to whether or not I could control myself and avoid making bad decisions with my bankroll. To this end, I decided to "start over" in some senses with a $1000 bankroll and play 3/6 at a local casino. This helped me get back to the basics of limit holdem and start the year off slowly. It was going well and I was regaining my confidence in my limit holdem game. By the end of January, I decided to take a couple shots at the 20/40 game. I had played in this game a few times in '07 with mixed results.

My first 20/40 session in '08 was quite a wild ride. There was a borderline maniac on my right who would do weird things like limp in after a few limpers and then if there was a raise behind him, he would just decide to three-bet randomly to "gamble." I managed to get into 3 different multiway capped pots preflop with AK because of this. The first one I had AhKh and the flop came QhJh8d. Me and one other player were driving the action on the flop with 3 others along for the ride. The turn was a 4c and the river was a Js so I missed everything. The second one, I flopped AK3. The turn was a J and I managed to lose to QT. The third one, I flopped AQ4. The river was a Q and I lost to QJ. Each of these pots was near $1000 because of the preflop spazzing of the guy to my right. Amazingly enough, even after losing all of these huge pots, the game was so good that I only ended the session down $400-$500.

That session opened my eyes to how profitable the 20/40 game was as long as I could control my emotions and play as well as possible at all times. There were hands where I played badly because I was still thinking about the previous hand, but overall, I controlled my tilt better than I had in '07. I decided to commit $10,000 to a bankroll for this 20/40 game and play it pretty much exclusively over the next few months and see what happens.

Thus began the best month of poker I have ever had. It was as if I could do no wrong. Every bluff I made was working and every time I had the best hand I was called down. While I was definitely running well (re: really lucky), I was also playing my best poker. By the end of the month I had made a little over $16,000 which was (and still is) the only time I've ever made over $10,000 in one month. I knew that a win rate like this (~$110/hr or 2.75 BB/hr) was unsustainable, but I was confident that I could beat the game over the long run for at least 1 BB/hr.

March was another great month for me helped by a marathon session that spanned two different casinos and over 28 hours. It started at the normal 20/40 spot with a rather frustrating break even session. Then, a few of the players were talking about moving the game to a nearby casino that was open all night (the one I was playing at closed at 6am). They talked me into coming along. Long story short, by 11-12am, I was up between $2000 and $3000! As if that wasn't enough poker, I drove back to the original 20/40 casino and played another 5-6 hours before finally leaving around 5pm. Needless to say I slept for about 12 hours after that. By the end of March I had made around $9000 which was my 3rd best month ever (My 2nd best month was June of '06 which was my first month in Seattle and included two jackpots and a big win in the $150/$300 game which is a story for another blog post).

In April and May, I didn't play the 20/40 much (I had a bad session near the end of April and was irrationally scared of losing back all the profit that I had made in February and March). I went down to Pendleton for the Spring Roundup and managed to place 11th in the $315 NL Holdem tournament which was kind of frustrating because I was one of the chip leaders with around 30 left and ran KK into AK all in preflop for a large amount of chips and an Ace flopped. But I did well to survive to 11th with the chips I had after that hand.

In June I went down to the WSOP for a week with JD. I played in a lot of satellites and made enough in those to pay for all of the big events that I entered. I got to the 2nd day in the $2000 LHE WSOP event and the $2500 NL Holdem event at the Venetian but finished short of the money in both of them. All in all it was a confidence boost that I was able to do so well in the satellites but was also frustrating that I came close to a big score but finished just short.

In July and August I played a bit of the 20/40 with a few big wins and big losses that roughly evened out. It was over this time that JD, Le, and I started talking about becoming professional poker players. We finally decided to go for it and I left my job on September 12th and, as I have already blogged about, it has been going really well ever since. I have become very confident in my ability to play $20/$40 and am pleased with my efforts to avoid tilt and shore up my C-game. There are still occasions where I feel like I have played badly, but they are happening less and less frequently.

2008 was my best poker year so far (almost +$40,000) and hopefully the good fortune and good play will continue into 2009!

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Pendleton Trip Report for Nov. '08 #2

#2: Two for Two?

So on the heels of my win of the HORSE tournament with my old workmates, I headed down to Pendelton ready to make a big score. In the first tournament, a $215 NL Holdem event, I started out making a few stabs at the wrong pots and was down a bit when this hand came up:

Folds to me on the button and I look down a KK and raise to 125 with blinds 25/50. SB folds and the BB reraises to 350. Now I have about 2800 total and debate whether or not to 4-bet. I decide to just call and hope for an all low flop to get the most out of TT-QQ.

Flop: A73 rainbow. He checks and I check behind still decently confident I have the best hand.

Turn: 6. He bets out 400. I flat call, unsure what to do on the river but feeling I can't just fold given the action so far.

River: 7. He fires 700. I should have folded here as his line is too strong for QQ-TT and I don't think he has air here often enough. But, stubborn as I am, I call anyway and he shows AA. So it may look like I saved money not going broke with KK against AA but in reality I should have lost less by folding the river. After that hand I was crippled and eventually busted on some non-memorable hand.

JD, who I had swapped 10% with for all of the tournaments, managed to make it to the top 18 so I got a little rebate.

The next day was the $215 HORSE tournament. I feel like this tournament has the most dead money of all the tournaments at Pendelton (on par with the SHOE tournament which is the same games without Razz). This is because people enter this tournament with little to no understanding of how to play the Stud games. Some of them don't even know the basic rules. As long as you can avoid going on tilt trying to make sure the rules of the game are followed in the first few rounds (even some of the dealers are shaky on how to deal Stud and Razz), you can't help but steadily build a stack with all the dead money. That is exactly what happened for me. After the first round of all the games I had about doubled my stack and some of the inexperienced players were starting to bust.

I also was fortunate enough to be seated directly to the left of the previous tournament's champion. It is a well known fact that the day after winning a tournament it is almost impossible to play well. You are on such a rush from having beaten everyone the previous day. Everything you did worked and if you made a mistake, you got lucky anyway. Now, you start over in a new tournament and you forget how to be patient and end up spewing away chips. Sometimes you're on the rush of your life and do well back to back, but for the most part, you just end up donating. It also helped that this champion was a NL Holdem player trying to play Razz, Stud, and Limit Holdem.

After the first two rounds of games, I was sitting on a somewhat comfortable stack, but the blinds were rising rapidly and one big hand could cripple me. That was when this hand went down on the first hand of the third Holdem round:

Folds to MP who raises, MP2 three-bets. LP thinks for a long time and says "If it was anyone else (other than MP2), I would play this hand, but since it's you, I fold," and folds. I look at KK in the SB and cap it. Folds to MP who thinks for a bit and folds. MP2 calls.

Flop: J52 rainbow. I bet, MP2 raises, I call (planning to check raise the turn). I should probably have just 3-bet here but I wanted to make sure I got my entire stack in as I only had 3 big bets after calling on the flop.

Turn: 4. I check, MP2 bets, I raise, MP2 calls.

River: 9. I bet all in and MP2 calls with what I assume was QQ. I show my KK and win the huge pot! After the hand, MP says that he had 22 for a set of 2s! What's even crazier is that LP says that he folded JJ for a set of Jacks! So if either of them had called preflop I would definitely have busted out.

After that hand I had the biggest stack at the table and was able to wait patiently and pick my spots. I ended up busting out the QQ guy later when he overplayed A7 into my KK on a Q637T board. So I went to the dinner break with a big stack and a lot of momentum.

After the break, I started out rather slow in the Omaha and Stud rounds. We were getting close to the money (they paid 32 spots) so I probably should have been more active but the table really didn't seem to be backing down much. Around the Stud round we made it into the money and I was switched to a new table for the first time of the tournament. It's interesting that I was the only person from the original 8 players of that table still in at that time. I guess it makes sense since they pay about 1 in 10 people. I also realized that it was during this exact Stud round that I had won the work tournament. I joked with JD that I wouldn't know what to do in the upcoming levels with no experience. For the most part, though, I was on cruise control. I would take a few pots here and there to pay for the blinds but I wasn't looking for confrontation.

By the time Holdem came around, we were down to the final 16 players. This was when I made my first big mistake of the tournament:

Folds to me in LP and I raise QJo. Folds to the BB who calls.

Flop: JT9. BB checks, I bet, BB calls.

Turn: 2. BB checks and I check behind (This is a NL play of controlling the pot. I should have bet here and not worried about a check-raise but I decided to check behind and try to induce a bluff).

River: 4. BB bets and I call and BB shows 44 for a rivered set!

I was really upset with letting the BB see the river for free. 95% of the time he won't catch that 4, but I still think that betting the turn is better simply because he can have a lot of hands that will call the turn on a draw. I had enough chips where this hand didn't cripple me, but if I lost another one I would definitely be hurting. A sort while after that hand, the defining hand of the tournament came up for me.

The 44 guy raises in MP. MP2 reraises (he was somewhat short and was probably committed to the hand). Folds to me in the SB and I tell myself I hope I have Aces and look down at ... AA! So I cap it. MP calls and MP2 calls.

Flop: Q94. I bet, MP calls, MP2 raises, I three-bet. MP thinks for a long time. MP2 shows his intentions of capping it and has just a couple chips left on top fo that. MP finally says that he's not getting the right odds and folds. MP2 caps and I call. Turn is a J and I bet and MP2 calls all in with KK. The river is a blank and my hand folds up for a big pot! MP reveals that he had KdTd and woulda made the nut straight on the turn! I was really surprised that he would fold there given that both me and MP2 were almost all in and the pot had grown enormous but I was glad that he did. This was the second time that someone who could well have justified calling had folded in a spot where I would have been knocked out.

The chips from that pot allowed me to cruise to the final table. This was my first final table of a big live (i.e. not online) tournament ever so I was a little nervous. I did manage to pose for this picture:



The final table was a good mix of two "young internet" kids, two 30ish men, one well known pro (Marsha Waggoner), one elderly man, one elderly woman, and me. It took a really long time for anyone to bust. There were a few short stacks but they always seemed to win when they were close to all in. Finally, one of the internet kids busted 8th and the elderly man went out 7th. I busted out Marsha in 6th (with a twinge of sadness as she is really nice and fun to have at the table). The elderly woman went out 5th and the other internet kid finished in 4th and it was down to me and the two 30 somethings!

I started out as the chip leader and was feeling really good about my chances of winning. I made a few mistakes and lost a couple pots and we paused the clock to talk about a deal. We decided to make 3rd and 2nd place pay $9000 and gave the remainder ($9800ish + the cruise) to first. I was the short stack (by a slight bit) and had lost my momentum so was happy to make the deal. This three-handed match was a huge roller coaster. We each held the chip lead and were each almost bust multiple times. Finally, we got down to heads up and I had a pretty severe chip disadvantage. On the first hand of Stud Hi/Lo, I managed to get my meager chip stack all in on 5th street with (2K)5J7 against (23)QJT. On 6th street I hit a pair of 2s and he hit an 8. On 7th, he looked first and turned over a Q for a pair of Queens and I squeezed out a blank and that was it! It was a little disappointing to finish so close to a win, but I was really happy to have made it so far.

So I was 1 spot away from winning two HORSE tournaments in a row but even with a 2nd place in this one, I had started my Pendelton trip off really well.

What was even more amazing is that the next day, JD managed to just about match my accomplishment by getting to the final table of the $215 Limit Holdem tournament! He finished in 4th place.

The rest of the trip was rather mundane as I kept making the dinner break but not cashing in the tournaments and then feeling too tired to play cash games. JD managed to make the final 18 of three more tournaments but couldn't get to the final table. All in all we both made almost exactly the same amount and so roughly broke even on our 10% swaps.

I definitely look forward to the next tournament series in Pendelton in the Spring of '09.

Pendleton Trip Report for Nov. '08 #2 (Cliff's Notes)

  • I busted early in the first $215 NL tournament even though I managed to not go broke with KK vs AA.
  • Half the players in the $215 HORSE tournament didn't know the rules to half the games.
  • I managed to dodge two different spots where people could have justified calling (and would have busted me) but didn't.
  • I reached my first final table of a big live tournament ever.
  • I finished 2nd!
  • JD managed to make a final table the very next day in the $215 Limit Holdem tournament, finishing 4th.
  • The rest of the trip was rather mundane with no big scores for either of us.