This post is a detailed list of the amount of bets that can be made in a casino that result in just -$5.00 in expectation in the long run (If you had 100 such sessions, you would probably lose about $500). The point of this post is to show which games and bets are ridiculously bad value and which ones are reasonable in moderation. With the addition of comps and other rewards given by the casino, some of these bets might be pretty close to break even and are well worth it for the entertainment value (assuming you enjoy playing these games) as long as they are controlled and unstressed.
The reason casinos make as much as they do is because people (re: like me at various times in '06 and '07) don't control themselves, get overstressed, chase losses, bet the hard ways etc.
- Make 70 $5 bets ($350 total) on the pass/come line in Craps (the "odds" bets are break even).
In practice, by taking a pass line and a max of 2 come points, this takes about an hour (each 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12 counts as one bet).
- Make $45 worth of bets on the Hard 4/10 or $55 worth on the Hard 6/8 in Craps.
This shows how terrible hard ways bets are.
- Make ~$600 in Blackjack bets.
This obviously varies based on the rules at the casino and if you can count cards or not.
- Make $95 in bets at an American Roulette table.
American Roulette has a 0 and 00 where European Roulette only has 0 and also you only lose 50% of 1:1 bets when it hits 0. Contrast this with $370 in European Roulette bets.
- Make $470 in bets on the Banker or $403 in bets on the Player in Baccarat.
Additionally you could make $217 in total bets on each. Betting on a tie is terrible value.
1 comment:
Good to know; I've only played craps a couple times and bet on the #8 of course:-) Good to know it's a better bet on the banker vs the player. I've only played that once though just for something new. I know all the games are -EV and I'm too much of a tightwad to want to play them:-)
Post a Comment